Why do mining results swing?
Every hash is a lottery ticket with the same tiny odds, so blocks turn up at random. The network averages 144 blocks a day, but some days bring 125 and others 165. A pool with 3% of the hashrate expects about 4.3 blocks a day and will often see 2 or 7.
The fewer blocks you expect, the wilder the swing. A pool with 0.3% of the hashrate expects a block every two days or so, and will have plenty of days with none. Pick the small pool in the simulator above to see it.
What about one machine on its own?
A single 200 TH/s machine mining solo would wait about 90 years on average for a block at today’s network hashrate (live estimate). It might find one next week, or never. The expected amount is the same in a pool, minus the fee. The pool turns a rare, huge win into small, regular payouts.
How do miners smooth it out?
By joining a pool and picking a payout scheme. With PPS or FPPS the pool absorbs the luck for a higher fee; with PPLNS you share the pool’s luck for a lower one. Over long stretches luck evens out, though it never disappears.
In the CloudMineCrypto app your estimate uses your hashrate’s average share of the network, so your balance grows smoothly while plans run rather than in lucky jumps. The estimate still moves with the network and isn’t guaranteed.
Sources
- Bitcoin: A Peer-to-Peer Electronic Cash System · Satoshi Nakamoto, 2008
- Pooled mining · Bitcoin Wiki
- Mining guide: solo and pool mining · Bitcoin developer documentation
Live figures on this page come from the CloudMineCrypto API and public chain data, refreshed regularly, and are labelled where they appear. Educational only, not financial advice.